The Effect of Geoarbitrage on Kelowna’s Real Estate Market

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In Kelowna, we’re being exploited. You read that right. How is this happening? Well, there is this little concept called geoarbitrage, popularized by Tim Ferris, that explains how you can leverage the disparity between two different markets in order to create a financial gain.

Obviously, this is what China and other countries have been doing to the Vancouver real estate market for the last 20 years - driving property values up to the point where four walls and a roof sell for $1.2 million in places like Richmond and White Rock.

What does this mean for us? There are a massive number of people living in the lower mainland who’ve owned real estate for multiple decades who bought their properties for maybe $150,000 or $200,000 and have seen those same properties increase in worth to anywhere from $1.2 to $1.5 million due to the pressure on their real estate market and international demand.

Now these same people who’ve always been interested in Kelowna are getting on the MLS and seeing palatial homes for $600,000 or $700,000 sitting on vineyards, or golf courses, or overlooking a beautiful lake. Of course they’re going to cash in their chips and come here. They won’t just buy a house, they’ll also buy an investment property to fund their retirement. It makes sense - you would do it too.

Now, think about the massive size of the population of Vancouver. If one out of every 1,000 people in the lower mainland gets the memo that their house is worth a ton of money and there’s a disparity between the market there and the market in Kelowna, and they can not only upgrade their house and lifestyle but also put a half million dollars in the bank, you know they’ll be coming.

So what are we going to do? Are we going to get upset that they’re driving our prices up? No! This is the world as it is, not how we want it to be. Getting on the right side of this equation means arming yourself with a bunch of real estate. If you want to benefit from a boom, you have to own the stuff. So what I’m saying is buy cash flow property. The market is wonderful for that. Then when the market goes crazy and prices go up, you can sell your own Kelowna real estate and perform your own geoarbitrage on any market you like. Whatever you want to do, you can take advantage and leverage the disparity between the markets here and wherever it is you’d like to go.

To reiterate, we are being exploited, but that’s a good thing. If you have any questions about what your home might be worth or want to see a list of properties that might provide cash flow, by all means call me or shoot me an email.

What Pricing Your Home Correctly Can Save You

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I just came out of a really cool meeting with the team and we were throwing different ideas around about pricing a home aggressively to sell quickly and for the most amount of money in this market.

A really neat stat that we figured out that I want to share with you is that homes being sold inside the first 30 days of being listed (which is becoming more common) are garnering over 99% of their asking price. When it comes to negotiation, sellers are in the driver’s seat. It’s a seller’s market, and a home selling in the first 30 days - if it’s new and fresh - is going to sell for full price, and maybe more.

How does that contrast to a home on the opposite end of the spectrum? What we’ve found is that homes either sell in the first 30 days or after 90 days. The reason for this is that it typically takes the seller 90 days to agree to a price reduction. I’ve looked at all the sales that have happened in the last couple months for homes that lasted 90+ days on market and found that these negotiations had a much different story to tell. Namely, people whose homes sat on the market for that period or longer got only 95.9% of their list price. That’s not 95.9% of the price they started at, but rather the reduced price that they got.

The reason for this difference is the negotiation position the seller had when they started. Even though they reduced the price, they’re still an old listing. This gives the buyer an element of control. Isn’t that interesting? Price the home properly, and you net an additional 3%. With average home prices now close to $600,000, just that difference in coming out strong versus have a pie-in-the-sky number can save you $20,000 in the negotiations

I hope you guys found this tip helpful. If you have any more questions, just call me or shoot me an email.

How we helped Stacie and Darren Read by providing a fast, speedy service.

"I am in the process of buying one and I just sold one.  They provide a fast, speedy service.  I had a quick sale on my home, it was only on the market for six days.  Excellent people to work with!  They are very kind and willing to what they have to do to get it done."
      Stacie Read, Home Seller and Buyer

What Can You Expect from the Kelowna Real Estate Market?

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We just came off a banner month in March, as our team completed 46 transactions! We’re fairly exhausted but we know that we have even busier days ahead of us as we delve into the spring and summer markets. However, I have some real estate stats to share with you as we move into the spring and summer.

• Single family homes sales have risen by 21% in Q1 2016 to Q1 2015.
• Home values have increased by 9.5% from $521k to $571k.
• 514 condos have sold this year, which is a 21% increase from last year.
• Condos have appreciated in value by 7%.
• It’s taking 66 days to sell a house and 75 days to sell a condo.
• Inventory has fallen since last year, and we only have three months of inventory. 

Another thing you should know is that homes that are priced well and in good condition are selling quickly and they’re usually getting more than one offer. If you’re selling, this is your chance to have a quick and profitable sale!

If you’re thinking about buying, we have a special search for listings that have not yet hit the market, or for homes that have been sitting on the market for a bit. 

In just the last seven days, we have seen 191 sales. Overall, our market is looking very good for the next twelve to eighteen months. If you have any more questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to contact us!

How We Helped Kevin & Angie by Being Professional and Knowledgeable

"My husband and I had the pleasure of working with Krista this past summer. Krista is very professional & knowledgeable. Always patient and the type of person who if she didn’t happen to know the answer to our question, she would happily find it out for you. It was nice to work with someone who never made us feel we were too picky. She genuinely wanted us to be happy. We would whole-heartily recommend Krista to anyone looking for the 'right' realtor to help in purchasing or selling  property here in beautiful Okanagan."

- Kevin & Angie, Home Buyers

Client Reviews Krista Marble, Realtor, Vantage West

• "Native Kelownian who is very knowledgeable about the energy and culture of individual neighbourhood pockets. 

• Highly professional in all interactions: timely, organized, and prompt. 

• Provided us guidance and assistance in all aspects of the real estate search, from a full initial explanation of the business philosophy of Vantage West, right down to a lovely card and gift once we had taken possession of our home. 

• Due to Krista’s expertise, the process of searching for, making an offer, inspecting, and taking possession of our home was extremely smooth. 

• Krista was highly personal and approachable in all interactions. She truly embodies the Vantage West spirit, valuing relational interactions over strictly financial dealings."

-Leanda Monro, Home Buyer

How We Helped Walter by Staying in Constant Contact

“I hired Jared to sell my home. I chose Jared, above other agents that I interviewed, to be my agent. Jared’s style of working as an agent impressed me very much. It has been a pleasure working with Jared, he kept me constantly informed on all transactions during the sale as well as after the completion of the sale. He was always willing, and without hesitation, to help in settling disputes that arose with the buyer even after the sale of my home was completed. He also worked hard in negotiating the best price for my home. I would strongly recommend Jared to any one requiring a Real Estate Agent."

Satisfied Client,

Walter Opalko

How Will Rising Interest Affect Prices in Kelowna?

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I received a question from a client about what might happen with interest rates this year. This is a great question, and I think everyone needs to know the answer.

I do believe that the prime rate will be relatively unaffected in 2016. A lot of our Canadian growth is derived from the energy sector, which has been struggling lately.

However, the banks will be slowly ratcheting up their mortgage interest rates. You can expect to pay 3% on a 5-year loan. Many of the discounted rates that were available in the past are no longer being offered.

We've seen demand remain strong even with these slight increases. I don't expect the lending rate to increase much further, because our economy relies on cheap borrowing.

Ultimately, I see mortgage rates staying very close to where they are. This will not affect your affordability very much. However, if you're buying, I recommend that you do so quite soon before rates increase any further.

If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact me. I look forward to hearing from you!

Kelowna Real Estate Market Predictions for 2016

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The media is going nuts about what is happening in our local real estate market. You've probably heard many different things, but today I want to let you know that our market is very strong. Here are a few reasons why:

I've taken a graphic from Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle and what you will see is Kelowna becoming the number 2 job market in Canada. When more jobs are available, more people come to town, and when more people come to town, they buy and sell more homes.

Typically, people will rent to start out, and that is why we have 0 vacancies available. Rent prices are rising, by as much as 20%, so this will force people to buy homes.

Demand has been increasing, and we have very little inventory available. This means that prices are going to be rising. Last year, we saw an 8% increase in home values. However, I believe in 2016 we could see as much as an 8-10% increase in home values.

That means that 2016 could be a record-setting year in real estate!

If you've been looking to buy or sell, please don't hesitate to contact me.

How We Helped Dan and Nicole by Having Multiple Showings

"We sold our home, which was the goal. We had more than one showing a day, so I thought that was phenomenal- far exceeding anything we've had with any other realtor in the past in other houses I've sold, so I'd say we're quite happy! They provided someone to do the staging and that had a big impact on sell-ability of our home and providing that service was quite helpful. The mover he suggested was awesome as well!"

- Dan & Nicole, Home Sellers

Tips for Holiday Decorating on a Budget

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The holidays are approaching. Today, we thought we'd do something a little different and share this festive video on holiday decorating tips from HGTV. Designer Angelo Surmelis shares several great ideas to spread holiday cheer throughout the home. Here are some of our favorites.

1. Pay attention to the mantle. If you don't have some already, buy some kind of garland to drape over the mantle. Next, use leftover ornaments and candles to add light and texture. When choosing ornaments and candles, ensure they are in the same color-palette. This helps make your mantle a great focal point!

2. Use smaller Christmas trees. Every house has their main Christmas tree. In addition, you can also purchase smaller, inexpensive, eco-friendly trees to place throughout the home. Decorate these trees with strips of fabric from a T-shirt in holiday colors to save money for the main tree.

3. Use what you have. Be resourceful. Adding a plate charge and place mat to your everyday dining set adds some jazz to your table. Fresh-cut flowers and candles will help finish the look. You don't need grand, expensive candles -- a little candlelight goes a long way!

As you can see, it doesn't take much to make your home feel more festive. If you have any questions, give us a call or send us an email. We would be happy to help you!

Is Using Professional Photography Important when Selling?

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Today we are back to answer another great question. The one we have been hearing a lot lately is: “Is it important to use professional photography when selling my home?”

Back in 2008, we were one of the first around to use professional photography with our listings, and our trial and error through the years has allowed us to really perfect our process. What we found was that initially, the photos made a big splash and these beautiful photographs would allow our listings to get a lot of activity. However, we also found that the homes were not selling as fast. 

This was because the photos were so good and so appealing that the actual properties were a bit of an oversell, which caused a letdown for buyers when they got there. We have learned from that mistake and have gotten much better with our photos since.

It’s still important that all of our homes have photographs with high resolution, that are framed properly, and capture the right light, but are not oversold or doctored too much. You will still see agents out there using these very fancy looking photos, and they are always too good to be true.

It's hard to get someone interested in a home when the first feeling they have upon arriving at the front door is disappointment. You want your photos to be appealing, but representative of the property. 

If you have any questions for us about photography, or about anything else real estate related, give us a call or send us an email. We use the best photographers in the business, and would be happy to share our knowledge and experience with you. 

What Does the Future of Real Estate Look Like?

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Today I am here to answer another great question from a client of ours, who wants to know what we can expect in the next 15-20 years, as far as home prices are concerned. Over the last 15 years, we saw prices nearly triple in value, then drop again. Our client wants to know if we can expect that same type of growth to happen over the next 15 years, or if this last cycle was some kind of anomaly. 

The real estate boom that occurred from 2003-2008 was unprecedented and one of the biggest of our generation. The same could be said for the market downturn, which was one of the largest slumps, and gave back 20% of that equity climb. 

As we head into our next cycle of the market, are we going to see that same kind of growth? Personally, I do not think we will see a huge boom. Rather, I predict us to see a more sustainable growth rate for home prices, more in line with the 80-yr average of real estate, which is around 5.7% a year. I do believe we will outperform that figure over the next few years, but I think over the course of the next 15, things will be much more stable and normal. 

Everyone always talks about the baby boomers and what a big and important target market they are, but here’s what people forget to mention: Baby boomers had kids. The average baby boomer has 2.2 children, which means that the generation they gave birth to (Generation Y, or millennials, children born between 1981-1992) is actually twice as big of a market. This generation is moving more and more into the market, and is the largest demographic in history. This generation is what will drive the market in the next 10-15 years, where there will be a steady supply of people purchasing and selling homes. 

Long story short, I think we will see a nice 5-10% steady appreciation for homes over the next 10-15 years, which will pave the way for a strong, sustainable market in the future. If you have any questions for us, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you!

How we helped Larry and Sarah by not being too pushy

"It went well! We had Evan Good as our realtor and it was a pretty smooth process. We were buying our first home and we looked at two and bought one. He was good to work with. He wasn’t pushy at all. He was relaxed and an easy going guy to deal with. He knew what we wanted and showed us a couple good examples and one pretty much fit exactly and they accepted the offer. He gave us lots of options and everything worked out."

-Larry Fisher, home buyer

How we helped Sheena by being accommodating for out of town sellers

"I got my house sold! In everything Jeff was super helpful, since I was out of town. He did a lot of the running around and everything for me. He was really willing to do anything that I needed. "

-Sheena Haines, Home seller

Your Kelowna Real Estate Questions Answered

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I've been receiving a lot of questions from my clients in Kelowna and the surrounding areas, so I'm just going to dive right in and answer them for you.

1. How do you get and maintain a quality tenant?

I've had a lot of bad tenants over the years, and I've learned from my mistakes. You need to run a credit check on your tenants to ensure that they're responsible enough to pay rent. Another thing you can do is treat them like a client, because they're helping you pay off the mortgage, and I think that's valuable. Remember their birthdays and stock their refrigerator with beer on moving day. Treat them with dignity and respect and you shouldn't have too many problems.

2. Will next Spring be a good season for flipping properties?

The market we're in right now isn't a good flipping market. It's good for buying, repairing, and holding onto. Right now you'd probably break even if you tried to flip a home. You really make money on a home when you buy it for a low price. It's harder to sell a property for a lot more money, even after you've put a lot of money into renovations.

If you have any more questions for me about real estate in Kelowna, please don't hesitate to contact me. I'm always excited to talk about real estate!

How we helped Martyn and Rose by always providing excellent customer service

"The result was that we purchased a property! The customer service was excellent because as soon as I wanted to go to a property, he was there for me and we went straight there."

-Martyn Nundy, Home buyer

How we helped Janine by going above and beyond, even though she had a low budget

"I’m really happy with them! I called about a listing and got set up with Krista. I told her what I wanted and by the next days she had listings for me to see and by the end of the week she was looking at them for me.  She is absolutely fantastic! I was buying from out east and I had a low budget but they made me feel like I was getting the same level of service as if I had a million bucks."

-Janine Kennedy, Home buyer

Vantage West Realty Reviews Brent Nagy

"We sold our home in just a month! Generally, they did a really good job!"

-Brent Nagy, Home seller

How we helped Nate by writing the perfect offer

"They were excellent! Fast and prompt. Just the way he wrote up my offer it got it accepted. Even though there was a higher offer than mine. The way he wrote it up was just perfect, I guess."

-Nate Nygren, Home buyer